According to national polls, a solid majority of Americans support legalization. Gallup’s latest survey gauged support at 58 percent, up from 12 percent from when the question was first posed in 1969. Pictured: Former U.S. Marine Sgt. Ryan Begin smokes medical marijuana at his home in Belfast, Maine on November 21, 2014. (Robert F. Bukaty, The Associated Press)

Marijuana legalization 2016: A glance at 9 states with pot measures on the ballot

If 'yes' votes prevail across the country, about 75 million people accounting for more than 23 percent of the U.S. population would live in states where recreational pot is legal

SAN FRANCISCO — From California, with its counterculture heritage, to the fishing ports and mill towns of Maine, millions of Americans in nine states have a chance to vote Nov. 8 on expanding legal access to marijuana.

Collectively, the ballot measures amount to the closest the U.S. has come to a national referendum on the drug.

Definitive guide to marijuana on the 2016 ballot: Recreational & medical initiatives

Five states — Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada — will consider legalizing the recreational use of pot. Three others — Florida, Arkansas and North Dakota — will decide whether to permit marijuana for medical purposes. Montana will weigh whether to ease restrictions on an existing medical marijuana law.

As the most populous state, with a reputation for trend-setting, California is attracting the most attention — and money — in an intensifying debate over Proposition 64.

Silicon Valley tycoons and deep-pocketed donors with connections to the legal medical marijuana industry are among the top financial backers of a pro-pot campaign that has raised almost $17 million. Opponents have raised slightly more than $2 million, including a $1.4 million contribution from retired Pennsylvania art professor Julie Schauer.

Follow the money: Who’s funding Prop. 64 in California?

Advocates on both sides say passage in California would likely ignite legalization movements in other states, especially when the tax dollars start adding up. California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office estimated the state could collect up to $1 billion a year in marijuana taxes.

“As California goes, so goes the nation,” said University of California, Berkeley political science professor Alan Ross.

If “yes” votes prevail across the country, about 75 million people accounting for more than 23 percent of the U.S. population would live in states where recreational pot is legal. The jurisdictions where that’s already the case — Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, Washington state and the District of Columbia — have about 18 million residents, or 5.6 percent of the population. Twenty-five states allow medical marijuana.

According to national polls, a solid majority of Americans support legalization. Gallup’s latest survey gauged support at 58 percent, up from 12 percent from when the question was first posed in 1969. Gallup says 13 percent of U.S. adults report using marijuana at present, nearly double the percentage who reported using pot in 2013.

California voters rejected an attempt to legalize recreational marijuana in 2010 after campaign leaders struggled to raise money and support for a four-page ballot measure hastily written by the owner of a small medicinal marijuana store.

This time, the 62-page ballot measure was crafted by political professionals and has the backing of many elected officials, including Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is running for governor in 2018. Current Gov. Jerry Brown says he’s close to announcing his position.

The measure would allow people 21 and older to legally possess up to an ounce of weed and grow six marijuana plants at home. Pot sales would be subject to various tax rates that would be deposited into the state’s Marijuana Tax Fund. Most of that money would be spent on substance-abuse education and treatment. Some would be used to repair environmental damage caused by illegal growers.

Opponents argue that the measure will do more harm than good by opening a marijuana market dominated by small farmers to corporate interests and encouraging children to use the drug through pot-laced sweets like gummy bears, cookies and brownies.

The proposal “favors the interests of wealthy corporations over the good of the everyday consumer, adopting policies that work against public health,” said Kevin Sabet, co-founder of the California-based advocacy group Smart Approaches to Marijuana.

Napster founder and early Facebook investor Sean Parker has contributed more than $3 million to the legalization effort, which has also attracted sizable contributions from an organization backed by billionaire George Soros and another backed by Weedmaps, which rates pot stores throughout the state.

“It’s a huge deal and it’s long overdue,” said Steven DeAngelo, owner of one of the nation’s largest medicinal marijuana dispensaries and a Proposition 64 supporter.

In most of the states with marijuana ballot measures, polls have shown the “yes” side leading. Sabet believes opponents of legalization would attract more support if they could narrow a large fundraising gap and spread their cautionary messages. He does not buy the other side’s argument that nationwide legalization will come sooner or later.

“Repeating that this is inevitable, and repeating they are so excited, is part of their narrative to makes folks like us feel helpless,” he said.

Mason Tvert of the Marijuana Policy Project, a leading pro-legalization group, said his side has a chance to win in most of the nine states, but some losses will not derail the movement.

“Even if a measure doesn’t pass, support will grow,” he said, citing failed ballot measures in Oregon and Colorado that preceded the victories for legalization.

“Most people believe marijuana should be legal. It’s a question of whether opponents do a good job of scaring them out of doing it now,” Tvert added. “We might see people opt to wait a couple more years.”

All five states voting on recreational marijuana have seen intense debate over the effect of legalization in the states that have already taken that step.

California medical marijuana bills OK'd by Gov. Jerry Brown
Canna Care employee John Hough waters young marijuana plants at the medical marijuana dispensary in Sacramento, Calif., on Aug. 19, 2015. The state now has regulations established for medical marijuana growers, manufacturers of pot-infused products and dispensaries. (Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press file)

Opponents of the ballot measures make an array of claims, contending, for example, that Colorado’s legalization of pot has coincided with an increase in crime in Denver and fueled a jump in the number of traffic fatalities linked to marijuana use.

However, an analysis by three academic experts, published this month by the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute, asserted that the impact of legalization has been minimal.

“The data so far provide little support for the strong claims about legalization made by either opponents or supporters,” the analysis said.

Harvard University economist Jeffrey Miron, one of the co-authors of the study, predicted Californians would approve Proposition 64, but he was less certain of the outcome in his home state of Massachusetts, where the Republican governor, Charlie Baker, and the Democratic mayor of Boston, Marty Walsh, have teamed up to oppose legalization.

Miron said it’s difficult to predict when legalization might get support in Congress or surge to approval in a majority of states.

“I’m not sure if this November will get us to the tipping point. It may be two or four more years,” he said. “Certain things seem impossible, until all of a sudden they are possible, and they happen fast.”


Marijuana measures on the ballot in 9 states on Nov. 8

Voters on Nov. 8 will decide ballot measures in nine states that would expand legal access to marijuana. In five states, the ballot measures propose to legalize recreational marijuana use for anyone 21 and over. Twenty-five states already allow use of marijuana for medical purposes. Three more could join that group, while one of the 25 states, Montana, will be voting to liberalize its existing law. Here’s a rundown:

RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA

ARIZONA: Proposition 205 would allow adults to buy and possess up to an ounce of marijuana and grow up to six plants at home. The initiative would establish a new department that would regulate pot like alcohol and impose a 15 percent tax on pot sales that would benefit municipalities, schools and the state health department. Many business groups and the Republican-led government, including Gov. Doug Ducey, oppose the measure. Two recent polls were at odds — one predicting the measure would prevail, the other forecasting its defeat.

CALIFORNIA: Proposition 64 would allow adults to possess up to an ounce of pot and grow six marijuana plants at home and levy various taxes on sales that would be deposited into the state’s Marijuana Tax Fund. Most of the money collected will be spent on substance-abuse education and treatment. Some of the fund would be used to repair damage done to the environment by illegal marijuana growers. Recent polls show support for the measure at about 58 to 60 percent.

MAINE: Maine’s ballot measure would allow possession of up to 2.5 ounces of marijuana, as well as the cultivation of up to six marijuana plants. It would place a sales tax of 10 percent on retail marijuana. There’s been opposition to the measure from many people in the medical marijuana community, including local growers who feel they will be squeezed out of the market by corporate operations if the state goes fully legal. Polls indicate a close outcome, with the pro-marijuana side apparently holding a slight lead.

MASSACHUSETTS: Question 4 would legalize possession of up to an ounce of recreational marijuana and allow for home-growing of a limited number of plants. Sales of marijuana products would be subject to a 3.75 percent excise tax in addition to the state’s regular sales tax, and a commission would be created to regulate recreational marijuana. Massachusetts voters have previously approved medical marijuana and decriminalizing possession of small amounts of pot. Polls suggest public opinion on the new measure is closely divided.

NEVADA: Question 2 would legalize possession and use of up to an ounce of marijuana and impose a 15 percent excise tax on marijuana sales, with revenue going to support education. For the first 18 months, only businesses that have medical marijuana certification could apply for licenses.

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MEDICAL MARIJUANA

ARKANSAS: Arkansas voters will have two competing medical marijuana proposals on the ballot, though both have faced court challenges seeking to disqualify them. Both would allow patients with certain medical conditions to buy marijuana from dispensaries, but they differ in their regulations. Supporters worry that having two proposals on the ballot increases the likelihood that both will fail. They face opposition from Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who once headed the federal Drug Enforcement Administration, and from a coalition of lobbying groups that includes the state Chamber of Commerce and the Arkansas Farm Bureau.

FLORIDA: Florida currently allows limited use of marijuana for terminally ill patients, and polls show voters favor a state constitutional amendment to more broadly legalize medical marijuana. The ballot measure, if approved by 60 percent of the state’s voters as expected, would allow its use for treating non-terminal patients suffering from debilitating conditions such as cancer, epilepsy, glaucoma, AIDS, post-traumatic stress disorder, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Crohn’s disease, Parkinson’s and multiple sclerosis. A similar measure was on the ballot in 2014 and received 58 percent approval, 2 percentage points shy of what was needed for passage.

NORTH DAKOTA: The initiative would make it legal for North Dakota residents who suffer from one of several debilitating illnesses to use marijuana with a doctor’s permission and possess up to 3 ounces of marijuana for medical purposes from either a state-licensed dispensary or a personally grown supply. The state Health Department says the program would cost more than $3.5 million a year to operate.

MONTANA: Montana’s ballot initiative would undo the restrictions that a 2011 state law placed on the 2004 voter initiative legalizing medical pot in the state. Those restrictions include a ban on dispensaries, flagging doctors for review if they recommend marijuana for more than 25 patients a year, and limitations on what ailments qualify for the registry.
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Crary reported from New York.